Birmingham's congresswoman lost her bid for the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, Aug. 4, as NBC News projected physician Abdul El-Sayed the winner of Michigan's Democratic primary over U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in one of the most expensive Senate primaries in American history.
El-Sayed led Stevens 48.6% to 47.3% with about 95% of ballots counted, a margin of roughly 20,000 votes statewide, according to the Detroit Free Press. Stevens, a four-term congresswoman from Birmingham, won Oakland County but couldn't overcome El-Sayed's strength in other parts of the state.
The Tuesday, Nov. 3 general election will pit El-Sayed, 41, against former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake Township, who ran unopposed in the Republican primary. Rogers lost the 2024 Senate race to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin by roughly 19,000 votes and carries President Donald Trump's endorsement into his second consecutive bid.
The open seat belongs to retiring U.S. Sen. Gary Peters of Bloomfield Township, who is stepping down after two terms. Republicans haven't won a Michigan Senate race since 1994, but the Cook Political Report rates the general election a toss-up.
Oakland County as battleground
The primary split Oakland County nearly down the middle. Stevens carried the county in unofficial results that were approximately 99% complete by midnight, per the Michigan Advance, but the margin was razor-thin in a county that sits almost entirely within her congressional district.
Robert Knevels, a 54-year-old Birmingham resident, told the Detroit News on Aug. 4 that he voted for Stevens: "I voted for Haley Stevens because I think she has a better chance to beat Mike Rogers in the November election."
Stevens cast her own ballot at the Baldwin Public Library in Birmingham on Aug. 4.
Spending war
The Democratic primary drew $98.2 million in ad spending or reserved airtime through the end of July, making it the third most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, according to Bridge Michigan. AIPAC's United Democracy Project spent a record $30.6 million boosting Stevens and attacking El-Sayed, according to Responsible Statecraft. Outside groups accounted for 88% of all Democratic-side spending, per Bridge Michigan.
El-Sayed leaned into the spending gap at his watch party at the Majestic Theater in Detroit early Wednesday, Aug. 5. "We didn't know they were going to spend $70 million of their money," he told supporters. "We didn't know that they were going to outspend us $11 to $1. And yet we're still standing."
What's next locally
Stevens' departure from Congress opens her 11th Congressional District seat, based almost entirely in Oakland County.
For the Senate general election, both parties are already investing heavily. Senate Majority PAC committed $20 million in Michigan TV reservations for the fall; the Republican Senate Leadership Fund announced $45 million in initial reservations to help Rogers.
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow of Royal Oak, who dropped out of the Senate primary July 5 but remained on the ballot and collected about 4% of the vote, endorsed El-Sayed on Wednesday, Aug. 5 and called for party unity heading into November.
No debate schedule for El-Sayed vs. Rogers has been announced.
